This page collects my work related to the Covid-19 crisis. My research argues that the Covid-19 crisis demanded a novel play in the epi playbook: vaccinate the world as fast as possible, and in the interim, aim to maximize societal and economic well-being subject to the constraint that the virus does not spread exponentially. In math, “Maximize Utility subject to R<1”.
For the work on vaccination, the best starting point is the March 2021 paper in Science with an amazing team of collaborators. My Wall Street Journal op-ed around this time with collaborator Chris Snyder may also be helpful. The May 2020 NYT op-ed by my collaborators Susan Athey, Michael Kremer, Chris Snyder and Alex Tabarrok remains both prescient and depressing. The ideas around the epi playbook are developed in the November 2020 NBER working paper, a preliminary version of which was circulated early in the crisis.
Selected Materials
Research Papers
An Economic Framework for Vaccine Prioritization
Coauthors: Mohammad Akbarpour, Piotr Dworczak, and Scott Duke KominersThe Quarterly Journal of Economics, (2024): 139, no.1, 359-417.
[PDF] [Slides] [All Related Material]
Distributing a Billion Vaccines: COVAX Successes, Challenges, and Opportunities
Coauthors: Hannah Kettler, Scott Duke Kominers, Erik Osland, Canice Prendergast, and Andrew A TorkelsonOxford Review of Economic Policy, (2022): 38, no. 4, 941-974.
[PDF] [All Related Material]
Preparing for a Pandemic: Accelerating Vaccine Availability
Coauthors: Amrita Ahuja, Susan Athey, Arthur Baker, Juan Camilo Castillo, Rachel Glennerster, Scott Duke Kominers, Michael Kremer, Jean Lee, Canice Prendergast, Christopher M Snyder, Alex Tabarrok, Brandon Joel Tan, and Witold WięcekAEA Papers and Proceedings, (2021): 111, 331-335.
[PDF] [Slides] [All Related Material]
Market Design to Accelerate Covid-19 Vaccine Supply
Coauthors: Juan Camilo Castillo, Amrita Ahuja, Susan Athey, Arthur Baker, Tasneem Chipty, Rachel Glennerster, Scott Duke Kominers, Michael Kremer, Greg Larson, Jean Lee, Canice Prendergast, Christopher M Snyder, Alex Tabarrok, Brandon Joel Tan, and Witold WięcekScience, (2021): 68, no.2, 1107-1109.
Bigger Is Better When It Comes to Vaccine Production
How Can More Covid-19 Vaccines be Made Available?
Management Conference ’21: Perspectives on COVID-19
[PDF] [Slides] [All Related Material]
Maximize Utility Subject to R ≤ 1: A Simple Price-Theory Approach to Covid-19 Lockdown and Reopening Policy
NBER Working Paper No. w28093. Latest Draft: November 2020.April 2020 draft: “R<1 as an Economic Constraint: Can we 'Expand the Frontier' in the Fight Against Covid-19?"
Slides, May 2020
Slides, April 2020
[PDF] [Slides] [All Related Material]
Policy Writing
Bigger Is Better When It Comes to Vaccine Production
Coauthors: Christopher SnyderWall Street Journal, March 2021.
[PDF] [All Related Material]
